Maybe ?
Waiting for a confirmation ...... for a "bottom" Notice the bottom at 3:00 pm yesterday
The portfolio is far ahead of the SPX from its inception. The S&P is down over 5 % since September. Cash is King for the moment.
RHAT broke down today - just as the fractal suggested.
Five hundred billion, 500,000,000,000. That's approximately how much the Wilshire lost in two and one half days of trading before Thursday's late growth fractal. The current ideal fractal devolution involves about 66 more trading days to a low. At this pace that would result in a negative valuation for the Wilshire - and just as negative numbers do not exist in nature, a negative valuation, likewise, will not occur for the Wilshire. Fractally, expect extreme swings of up and down valuations. Those thinking of making money during this macroeconomic catastrophe should think again. A wise government would tax all windfall profits by 90 percent. No one should get rich in this scenario. In the future wise governments will devise monetary policy, interest rates, and and lending regulations to control speculation in assets and their subsequent overvaluation. The more specific the fractal prediction, the greater probability for error. That the complex macroeconomic system grows and decays and otherwise evolves according to a mathematical set of fractal patterns appears readily observable retrospectively to anyone who cares to studiously review the data in prior EF postings. The real task is predicting the future pattern with a reasonable degree of clarity. That would solidly place fractal analysis as having the properties of a real science. Prior postings in the Economic Fractalist show an evolution of predictions. There are errors. These postings are like entries in an experimental lab notebook. They will remain unaltered, available for review. The incorrect estimations show the evolution of ongoing fractal interpretation. As the fractal valuations evolve and present new data (and the older patterns become more and more resounding in their ideal quantum nature), so do the interpretations of the future valuations evolve, gaining greater clarity. The current interpretation as of 6 October 2005 of an ideal fractal decay evolution for the Wilshire is as follows: The peak secondary to March 2000 occurred on 3 August 2005. This secondary peak occurs 147 years after the completion in 1858 of the first major US economic grand fractal lasting about 70 years. The second grand fractal is (will probably be)composed of two 74 year subfractals, the first ending in 1932 and the second predicted to end in 2006. The Wilshire is an extension of earlier exchange stock valuation activity dating to the 18th century. The top monthly Wilshire fractal including the March 2000 top was 27-28 months in length. The expected 2.5x end of the fractal would be 67-70 months in length. This agrees with the ideal end of a weekly fractal sequence x,2.5x/2x/1.5x with an averaged base of 30 weeks (8 taken from a declining fractal and 23 taken from a flat base; one week is subtracted for double counting). The ideal weekly sequence is; 30/75/60/45. The Wilshire is currently on week 2 of the 45 week decay fractal. The third growth fractal above composed of about 60 weeks is composed of a 11/28/22 weeks or 59 weeks(subtract 2 for double counting). The 1.5x decay fractal of this sequence would be 18 weeks. The daily count of the above fractal is 51-52/129-130/103-104 (x/2.5x/2x). Remembering the integrative effect that fractals represent, decay begins in top portion of the third subfractal or in the 103-104 day period. Likewise by this reasoning the 103rd to104th day is not expected to be 'the' final secondary high because of integrative averaging and ongoing decay. The number of days to an expected ideal low would be 1.5 times 51-52 or about 76-77. As of 6 October 2005 the Wilshire is about day 10 of that decay period. Thus after this week ends there will be about 65 more tradings to a low. With trading holidays that would represent about 14 more weeks. As mentioned in prior postings the ideal quantum decay is x/2.5x/2.5x. This was the sequence in 1929 with a base of 11 - 11/27/27. Other quantum decay fractals are possible such as x/2.5x/x,1.5x,1.6x,and 2x, but the x/2.5x/2.5x fractal is the most likely. the interpretation of future fractal evolution are very much like the solving of a simple mathematical puzzle. The best solution using the above information is a decay fractal of nearly 21 days. The second two decay fractals are each composed of 52. August 3 falls into the middle subfractal of 11 days of a 5/11/7 day sequence(subtract 2 days for double counting. Notice a slope taken at the low of the first and last day of this nearly 21 day fractal contains all the lows of the fractal. The second fractal sequence is 9/19/day 11 of 26-27 days for a total of 52-53 days. The third decay fractal would be composed of about 52 days. The 30 or so remaining weeks (45 minus 15) after the the predicted January 2006 low might be composed of a 5/12/10/7 inverted 'u' shaped fractal that would serve as the beginning base for the next growth sequence. My estimation will be that the low will be unimaginable. Take this estimation like a notation in an experimental lab notebook. It's today's best thought. It is today's best working fractal hypothesis. Better thoughts with more ongoing data points and an ongoing review of older information will likely occur in the following days. This is not trading advice.
2002-3 is near; further lateral valuation growth of up to 3-6 days is possible. The 3 August 2005 Wilshire, will, with great probability, not be exceeded. But there is a possibility for the Nikkei, FTSE, CAC and DAX to retest and exceed the previous week's highs. The maximal daily final daily fractal pattern for the NIKKEI is on day 38 of a maximal 17-18/43/38 of 43 pattern (x/2.5x/2.5x maximal pattern). The Wilshire, FTSE, CAC, and DAX are on day 8 of a 5-6/14/8 of 10-14 day pattern. It is possible that these markets could break down before the maximal theoretical length of their growth periods (see below), but during the last three years all of the saturation third fractal growth patterns have gone to their full 2x-2.5x length for the major equity indices. This pattern is expected to continue. The long term fractal pattern since October of 1998 on a monthly basis will be completed this month: x/2.5x/2.5x or 15/37/37(October 2005 is month 37). On a weekly basis this is 59/157/156 of 157 weeks. Since fractal patterns represent saturation growth and decay curves, hypothetically, had the fed maintained, until present, a fed fund rate of 1 percent, the Wilshire's valuation may have been substantial higher than it is now- with a parabolic growth blow-off akin to that now occurring in the NIKKEI. Theoretical, the timing of the saturation peak would be, nevertheless, nearly unchanged. Fractal growth has followed a remarkable quantum x/2.5x/2x time unit pattern for the last 36-38 months despite a series of fed increases in fed funds interest rates. a summary review of this growth is found below: Using the Wilshire: TMWX First growth fractal (x): 22 weeks 103 days (12 Mar 2003 -6 August 2003) Second growth fractal (2.5x) 54-5 weeks 258 days (6 August 2003 - 13 August2004) It may well be that these two fractals represent the composition of the 'true' second growth fractal with an averaged calculated true first growth fractal of 30 weeks or 144 days. A look at the Wilshire shows a positive growth pattern prior to March 12, 2003 of 23 weeks. It is possible that 7 additional weeks of the preceding declining fractal of 12 weeks was averaged into that real first growth fractal. Because fractals are an integrative process of both the preceding decay and subsequent growth, this averaging is intuitively reasonable. The integrated growth pattern would be: First fractal (averaged) (x) 30 weeks 144 days Second fractal (2.5x) 75 weeks 360 days The ideal time of the third fractal would be 2x or 288 days The third fractal beginning in August 2004: 51-52/130/109 of a 104-130 maximum growth range or 51-52/130/104/ day 5 of a 78 day decay fractal Friday 30 September was day 288-9 of an ideal 288 third fractal 2x pattern. The idealized decay pattern using a 51-21 day base is about 77-78 days. There are about 70 days left for a primary low. Interestingly this agrees with an even longer integrated averaged fractal sequence dating from October 1998 of a first fractal that includes fifty percent of a preceding decaying weekly fractal of 5 weeks duration: first weekly fractal 109.5 weeks second fractal 259 of 275 weeks with about 16 weeks left to a low. By using day 288 as the ideal third fractal top, using 72 days (from September 30) to an expected low and 72 days as an expected low with the 52/130/104/day 5 of 78 to an expected low, the first decay base most likely started 31 August 2005. The initial decay fractal base was 16 days. This ideally would be followed by second and third decay fractals of 40 days for a total of 79 trading days from 22 September 2005. This is in exact agreement to a day of the major 144/360/288/72 daily fractal sequence and the final third fractal 52/130/104/78 day sequence both which end within one day of each other.
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